Wait until next year

Some incredibly rough and ready thoughts on the Bexley Council election results – somewhere I think is interesting at a national level as it was very much a target for Reform but ended up being, at least on the surface, a pretty straightforward victory for the incumbent Tories.

1. This is obviously a huge generalisation, but Bexley, as a borough is inherently small-c conservative (as well as capital-C Conservative). There is an inherent suspicion of anything radical, to the left or right. People like a good moan about The State of Things Today but they also don’t really want anything to change. I think this absolutely played into people choosing not to vote Reform. It would be risky to have them in power, and while in some parts of the country people may feel they have nothing to lose taking that risk, many voters in Bexley are far too cautious and far too comfortable to roll the dice. 
2. Tories and Labour focused solely on the threat of Reform, unlike the national campaign. We’ve seen a week or so of a concerted effort to discredit the Greens at a national level. This simply wasn’t relevant in Bexley – the Greens were no threat. And so both the Tories and Labour focused their attention on attacking Reform and positioning themselves as the safe and stable options. This was a smart move considering point one above.
3. Traditionally there hasn’t been a whole load of marginal wards in Bexley. However, with the rise of Reform, several safe seats became anything but. And so many people who were against Reform gaining power held their noses and voted for whoever would keep them out. In many ways it was a simple election – do you want Reform or not? And that kind of simplicity meant tactical voting stood a good chance of working, and the Tories stood to benefit disproportionately.
4. Policies were interchangeable between parties. Every leaflet went on about potholes, open spaces and HMOs, but not a lot else. There didn’t seem to be a whole lot of ideological difference between the Tories, Labour or Reform on local issues. And so the vote became more about who you didn’t want, rather than who you did.
5. The Tories had a much better ground game – local MP Louie French was a very public presence, Laura Trott came up from Sevenoaks, Kemi Badenoch made a visit to the Borough. It felt like as the campaign went on the Tories realised they were still in the fight, and responded accordingly.
6. Meanwhile, Reform’s campaigning was lazy – a brief trip to Welling from Farage, uninspiring leafleting, lack of door-to-door campaigning. It didn’t feel like a particularly “local” campaign.
7. The Labour vote held up in the north – I think the strong work of local councillors over the last few years helped – people voted for the councillors ahead of the party perhaps. But also in those wards people simply aren’t going to vote Reform or Conservative in any kind of numbers.
8. In terms of vote share Reform were close to the Tories, but got edged out in multiple wards. With a more focused effort they could have done significantly better. An extra 100 votes here and there and they might have had a significantly more successful time of it in Bexley. 
9. Bexley has always been a divided borough, between the Labour North and Tory South. The middle of the borough has often been what has swung elections, but this time Reform took some of those wards. In the next national and local elections that middle of the borough will need to be the battleground – that’s where things can change.