football | Wait until next year

August 28, 2009

Champions League draw – initial thoughts

So, here’s yesterday’s draw:

Group A: Bayern Munich, Juventus, Bordeaux , Maccabi Haifa

Group B: Manchester United, CSKA Moscow, Besiktas, Wolfsburg

Group C: AC Milan, Real Madrid, Marseille, FC Zurich

Group D: Chelsea, Porto, Atletico Madrid, Apoel FC

Group E: Liverpool, Lyon, Fiorentina, Debreceni

Group F: Barcelona, Internazionale, Dynamo Kiev, FC Rubin Kazan

Group G: Sevilla, Rangers, VfB Stuttgart, Unirea Uriziceni

Group H: Arsenal, AZ Alkmaar, Olympiakos, Standard Liege

It was certainly good to see some new (and unusual) names make it into the Champions League draw, but beyond that, at first glance, I’m not sure there is that much to get overly excited about. A common criticism of the Champions League group stage is that it reduces the chance of an upset, as over the course of six games the bigger teams will generally prevail, unlike in a straight knockout tournament. While arguably this ensures the best teams go through, it does make things rather predictable. What’s a cup tournament without a few underdogs making progress?

This draw looks even more predictable than in previous years (although I may well be proved wrong in time!). The British teams in particular seem to have got off lightly, and over the course of six games should progress, or will need to have some very good excuses up their sleeve if they don’t.

The non-British groups probably throw up the most interesting ties, Bayern Munich/Juventus, Milan/Madrid and Inter/Barca, and so perhaps offer the best chance for a third or fourth seed to sneak through if one of the big guns lose twice to a top seed and then drop points elsewhere. However, the top two seeds in each group do look very strong favourites to go through.

However, despite this negativity, I’m still quite looking forward to the group stages. In some ways it works to have a more low-key opening to a tournament, before the heat and action of the later stages. Plus, seeing what some of the new faces can do will be fun, and European football on telly is always a good thing. Even with Sky’s ridiculous hype.

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August 25, 2009

The Not Watching (Liverpool versus Aston Villa)

I am perhaps the worst sort of armchair supporter – one who cannot even manage to catch every game shown on television. Last night, just before heading to one pub to watch the game I ended up diverted to another, as a friend who is a father-to-be was in town. So, instead of watching what appears to have been a poor display, I just had that sinking feeling each time someones phone lit up with another Villa goal. And then home to the even more unsatisfying conclusion of reading the match report online. Just reading a report isn’t that wonderful anyway, unless you are lucky enough to encounter a really skilled journalist. Football just doesn’t lend itself to poetic writing in the way other sports do, such as cricket, baseball, boxing. There’s often no overarching narrative, just a sequence of random events. And when your team has lost you don’t even get the joy of revelling in reading their exploits.

Liverpool have now lost as many games this season as they lost in the whole of last season. It’s going to be a long one. Still, I had a lovely evening all the same.

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August 18, 2009

Today’s tips – or The Return Of Betting Hell

When I restarted this blog I eased myself in with a series of tips – or at least a daily record of what I was betting on each day. To begin with there was some profit, and I was sad that I was only betting to incredibly small stakes. Then I lost and lost and lost, and was extremely happy to be only betting to incredibly small stakes. However, I figured that such a remarkable knack for picking the wrong horse/football team/baseball team/cricket team etc wasn’t really worth noting in blog form.

Until today that is, when my betting escapades make a (welcome? unwelcome? unnoticed?) return. With some time off work I’ve had the opportunity to study the form, decide on a plan of action and go to war with the bookie. However, I’ve ended up just following other tipsters and going along with what seems like reasonably sensible bets. I’d say Poets Voice is the only conclusion I’ve come to on my own – so perhaps you’re best avoiding that one like the plague!

Today’s selections:

York Racing:

2.15 Poets Voice

2.50 Jukebox Jury

Football

Sunderland to draw or win

Celtic/Arsenal to draw

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August 14, 2009

What I’m looking forward to in the Premier League this season

The hype and the expectation will soon be over – the Premier League kicks off tomorrow. Here we go again, then. As a Liverpool supporter I have already braced myself for another season of dissapointment, essentially playing a trick on myself to save heartache further into the season, and to make any sort of success a nice surprise.

So, beyond wall-to-wall football, what am I actually looking forward to?

Well, I think we could be looking at an even closer title battle. Last season showed just how narrow the margins of error are. Liverpool lost only two games, but didn’t win the title. It wasn’t the ‘big four’ games that decided the title, it was winning week-in, week-out against the smaller teams. So, essentially, every game matters from day one. This could be the most competitive title race yet.

How Manchester City progress should be fascinating. I’m not convinced they will gel right away, but Mark Hughes has done a good job of bringing in some proven Premier League would should settle soon enough, so they do seem the great unknown quantity.

The relegation fight could be fiercer than ever too. Hull and Stoke showed last year that you just can’t write off any team coming up. And Newcastle showed anyone can do down. And this year there are so many clubs who conceivably could get relegated. Taking a quick look at the Paddy Power site, seven teams are 4-1 or worse (down to odds-on) for the drop. There are probably ten or eleven clubs who will be looking at getting the mythical forty-points-for-safety before worrying about getting into Europe or anything fancy like that.

Finally, World Cup year. Everyone is going to be out to impress.

So, I’m strangely optimistic about this season. Hopefully no one team will run away with it, and no team will stay rooted to the bottom, and things will stay interesting. How do you think this season will pan out?

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August 13, 2009

Why I won’t be watching the England/Holland game tonight – addendum

Well, for various reasons I and my Significant Other didn’t make it out for dinner last night. And I was almost a man of my word when it came to not watching the England/Holland game. Admittedly I listened to the first half on the radio while I cooked dinner. Dinner was eaten without TV. After that, I even did the washing-up, a rare moment of awesome-boyfriend-ness. With the radio commentary on, but still.

In fact, I only watched the game when I returned to the living room to find that my S.O. had turned the television on to watch it herself. What a girl she is.

So, I caught the last 25 minutes, plus I saw the goals in the dreadful punditry roundup that followed. Surely ITV could find some more eloquent people than Andy Townsend and Teddy Sheringham?

My thoughts:

Friendly or not, there can be no excuse for the lapses in concentration that let in Holland for their two goals.
England would never have got back in the game if it wasn’t a friendly, with the substitutions (that Holland wouldn’t have made in a competitive game) unsettling the Dutch.
Defoe took his first goal really well, and did a good job poaching the second, yet for some reason I’m still not convinced he is international quality.
James Milner looked really good – very assured. A fine debut.
I enjoyed the Babel/Johnson duel. I thought Babel looked good, but his final ball still leaves a lot to be desired.

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