My Uneducated, Ill-informed 2011 MLB Predictions
by Steve
Baseball’s Opening Day is tomorrow, and so I thought that I would publicly record my predictions for the season that lies ahead. Some of my comments have already appeared in the MLB Predictions post over at BaseballGB, where I’m entering my second year as an uneducated, ill-informed columnist. However, I thought I’d also throw up my full, unedited set of predictions and comments for posterity, if only to show in October how awful I am at predicting anything (as my bookmaker will attest). Feel free to pity/ignore as appropriate:
AL East
- Red Sox
- Rays (Wild Card)
- Yankees
- Blue Jays
- Orioles
The Red Sox look so strong this year, particularly with the additions they’ve made. There are enough question-marks over the Yankees that I think they might miss the play-offs, but that really depends on the Rays having another great year. I think it could be really very close. As always, I feel sorry for the Blue Jays and Orioles – in any other division they might stand a chance of contending.
AL Central
- White Sox
- Twins
- Tigers
- Indians
- Royals
This year will be Ozzie Guillén’s year! Well, probably not, but I thought I’d gamble on this rather than the more predictable Twins pick. I imagine the Tigers could be pretty competitive, but I’m not expecting anything from the Indians or the Royals. It will be interesting if the Royals start blooding some of their much-heralded prospects later in the year though.
AL West
- Rangers
- Angels
- Athletics
- Mariners
I went for the Rangers last year, and I’m sticking with them this year. I expect it to be a whole lot closer though.
NL East
- Braves
- Phillies
- Marlins
- Mets
- Nationals
On pitching alone, the Phillies should storm it, but I have some niggling doubts about them getting the runs to back it up. I think the Braves have a pretty good pitching staff themselves, and a very solid offence too. So, I’m going for the upset here. I can’t see the Marlins worrying either side, and the Mets and Nationals seem to be in strict (re)building mode.
NL Central
- Brewers
- Reds (Wild Card)
- Cardinals
- Cubs
- Astros
- Pirates
I think this could be the division to watch this season, as the Brewers, Reds, Cardinals and Cubs all have creditable claims. I going for the Brewers, as their off-season activity points to them choosing 2011 as the year to roll the dice. I can see them reinforcing their squad before the trade deadline if they are in a competitive spot, and that will push them over the line.
NL West
- Giants
- Dodgers
- Rockies
- Padres
- Diamondbacks
This should be another close run thing, but I can see the Giant’s pitching and experience gained from last year making the difference. I have the Rockies in my “overrated” pile. This will probably mean they’ll storm the division!
And on to the play-offs…
ALDS
Red Sox over White Sox
Rangers over Rays
ALCS
Red Sox over Rangers
NLDS
Giants over Reds
Brewers over Braves
NLCS
Brewers over Giants
World Series
Red Sox over Brewers
The Red Sox look the most complete side in MLB right now, and I have trouble looking past them even though it’s not really a clever prediction. I’m taking a bit more of a punt having the Brewers make the World Series, but I think the National League is open enough for it not to be inconceivable.
I agree with most of your division winners (Atlanta looks good, but I’ll stick with the Phillies in the East). I think the Yankees will take the AL Wild Card and the Rockies will get the NL’s.
I agree that the NL Central is probably the most competitive division, so I think it’ll be hard for the WC to come from there. (Also, the NL Central tends to beat each other up in the regular season so they haven’t done particularly well in the playoffs.)
Phillies over Rangers in the World Series. You heard it here first.
LikeLike
The Cards and Reds pitching looks atrocious right now. Milwaukee is the trendy pick for sure. There’s also a lot of buzz around the Braves.
LikeLike
I think the O’s might surprise everyone this year. (Oh, they still might come in last, but they’ll be surprising!)
LikeLike
Good to see some further tips in the comments – thanks all! I shall have to return to this post come October and see how we all did. There are bound to be some surprises in store, but I’m damned if I know what they’ll be (if I did I would be on my way to a bookmaker right now).
LikeLike
[…] My Uneducated, Ill-informed 2011 MLB Predictions (waituntilnextyear.com) […]
LikeLike
I don’t know how long it took the Mets to win a road series last year, but it was more than 1 week.
LGM!
LikeLike
I’m scared to comment too much about their start for fear of jinxing them! But I’m encouraged so far – bring on the Phillies tonight!
LikeLike